Sex Offender Re-Offense Risk Assessment Videotape Training Program

Reviews and Testimonials

Video Review published in the ASTA Forum, No. 2, Summer 2000

Review by David S. Prescott, LICSW
Shaftsbury, Vermont

A passing glance at the research on predicting sex offender recidivism shows that clinicians have fared poorly at assessing risk. This insulting revelation has spurred controversy and self-examination. The only solace is that other types of unguided prediction, such as academic performance, have not done any better. Actuarial scales that give (on average) more effective predictions than clinicians have offered dubious comfort to evaluators accustomed to comprehensive evaluations. Skeptics ask if less really does equal more. Whatever the case, there is a strong implication that evaluators of risk have an obligation to be familiar with the recent research around actuarial risk assessment scales.

The actuarial scales have an allure that can diminish to confusion, disappointment, and frustration. While many users hope that they will be able to predict absolute risk for a specific offeder, questions arise as to whether the scales apply to groups such as sadists, adolescents, or the developmentally delayed. As simple as these scales appear at the outset, knowledge of the research behind them is vital to using them in any meaningful way.

Lloyd Sinclair's video program is compiled from his three-day symposium featuring the authors of the most promising scales, including Karl Hanson, Douglas Epperson, David Thornton, Vern Quinsey and Robert Prentky, as well as Robert Hare, Ph.D., author of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R). The program covers virtually every element of sex offender risk assessment, along with presentations on related legal and ethical issues, among other areas. Each author presents their scales, their underlying research, and (except for Hare) scores typical offenders portrayed by actors. Complete scoring criteria for the VRAG and SORAG are not provided. Hare presents an overview on psychopathy and discusses how psychopathic offenders differ from other sex offenders.

Most of the actuarial scales discussed in this program are described in ATSA's recent pamphlet Risk Assessment, and need no further introduction. They include the RRASOR, Static-99, MnSOST-R, SONAR, VRAG, and SORAG. In addition, Prentky presents the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol (J-SOAP) and Thornton presents his Structured Risk Assessment (SRA). The SRA is an approach for measuring dynamic (changeable) risk factors. It also contains a brief measure of treatment progress and supplements the Static-99. It is noteworthy that the SRA is currently available only in this program and in specialized training with Thornton.

The Sinclair program leads the viewer from Hanson and Bussiere's 1996 meta-analysis through the development of the static factor scales and into dynamic risk assessment with the SONAR and SRA. Key elements such as ROC curves are addressed along the way. Aspects such as testifying in court and writing reports are also covered. Tom Grisso speaks to ethical issues around these instruments and risk assessment in general.

Dennis Doren ties all the threads together in a thoughtful comparison of the instruments and suggestions for their use. He makes the point that many of the instruments can be used in combination to assess various dimensions of offending, such as pedophilia and antisocial personality disorder. The program concludes with a panel discussion of the presenters (moderated by Anna Salter) addressing audience questions ranging from female offenders to the future of risk prediction.

A unique element of this program is that nearly all the presenters were present for the entire conference. Interesting discussions travel across presentations, including the role of dynamic factors in understanding long-term risk. These discussions also highlight areas yet to be addressed in understanding the prediction of recidivisim, such as whether scale items are best understood from a theory or actuarial framework.

The program places a deliberate focus on the potential use of scales for civil commitment evaluations. Although this ensures validation and methodological rigor in the scales presented, it also means that other approaches are not included. Empirically grounded (but not directly validated) schemes such as the Sexual Violence Recdivism - 20 are not discussed.

Sinclair and his colleagues have compacted, but never reduced, vast information into a program accessible to those with beginning and advanced skills alike. It is comprehensive, versatile, and contains valuable information for treatment planning and decisions beyond formalized risk assessment. It also provides a first-class window into the facinating thought behind the research into re-offense risk prediction.

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